Walk Forward Optimization

NumWFOCycles

Strategy parameters and trade rules are generated separately for every cycle in [Train] mode, and are separately loaded for every test segment in [Test] mode. This way, the strategy test is guaranteed to be out of sample - it uses only parameters and rules that were generated in the preceding training cycle from data that does not occur in the test. This simulates the behavior of real trading where parameters and rules are generated from past price data. A Walk Forward Test gives the best prediction possible of the strategy performance over time.

WFOPeriod

SelectWFO

Type:

WFOCycle

WFOBar

Type:

Remarks:

• WFO is explained in the Training chapter and in Workshop 5.
• If DataSplit is not set otherwise, WFO uses a default training period of 85% and a default test period of 15%.
• WFO can strongly reduce the overall test period as compared to no WFO (see diagrams above). For a longer test period, increase the number of WFO cycles and/or reduce DataSplit.
• DataSlope can improve the parameter quality with anchored WFO cycles.
• Use DataHorizon to prevent test bias when training is based on future prices.
• WFO training time can be strongly reduced by using several CPU cores.
• The optimal number of WFO cycles depends mainly on the strategy, and to a lesser extent on the simulation period and the time frame. Large time frames or infrequent trading require a small number of WFO cycles for getting enough trades per cycle. Very market-dependent strategies with fast expiring parameters require a high number of WFO cycles. If the strategy performance highly varies with small changes of NumWFOCycles, a periodic seasonal effect is likely the reason. Try to determine and eliminate seasonal effects before optimizing a strategy.
• Parameters, rules, and factors are stored in files in the Data folder. The number of the cycle is added to the file name, except for the last WFO cycle. F.i. a parameter WFO of a script "Trade.c" and 4 cycles will generate the following parameter files in the Data folder: Trade_1.par, Trade_2.par, Trade_3.par, Trade.par, Trade.fac. [Test] mode reloads the parameters and rules for every segment during the test cycle. [Trade] mode uses the parameters and rules from the last WFO cycle, without an attached number.
• Normally the LookBack period precedes the first WFO cycle in [Test] mode. If the RECALCULATE flag is set, a dedicated lookback period precedes every WFO cycle. The content of all series is discarded and recalculated from the parameters and rules of the new cycle. This increases the test time, but produces a slightly more realistic test by simulating the start of a new trade session at every WFO cycle.
• When trading a walk-forward optimized strategy, it makes sense to re-train the last cycle perodically for making the strategy independent on parameter settings. 
• The last WFO cycle (cycle 5 in the figure above) has no test period. If SelectWFO is set to the last cycle in [Test] mode, the out-of-sample period before the training is tested instead (OOS Test in the figure; rolling WFO only). The OOS test often generates low profit, but can inform about the long-term performance of the strategy when it is not re-trained.
• Anchored WFO can be used to test the lifetime of parameters or rules. If anchored WFO generates a better result than rolling WFO, the strategy is longlived and does not need to be retrained often. Normally, rolling WFO produces better results, meaning that the market changes and that parameters / rules must be adapted from time to time.
• WFO parameters and rules are only valid for the simulation period with which they were created. If the period is changed - for instance, when new price data is downloaded - the strategy must be trained anew. For avoiding unintended changes of the simulation period, set a fixed StartDate and EndDate for the test.
• In training, every WFO cycle is a separate simulation run including INITRUN and EXITRUN. In testing all WFO cycles are tested in a single simulation run.
• Use the plotWFOCycle and plotWFOProfit functions for analyzing the profit curve over one or several WFO cycles.

Examples:

function run()
{
  NumWFOCycles = -10; // anchored WFO, 10 cycles 
  DataSplit = 80; // 20% test cycle
  DataSlope = 2;  // more weight to more recent data
  set(PARAMETERS+TESTNOW); // run a test immediately after WFO
  ...
}

// calculate NumWFOCycles from the test period in days
// DataSplit and LookBack must be set before
function setWFO2(int daysTest)
{
  asset(Asset); // requires NumBars, so asset must be set
  int barsTest = daysTest * 1440/BarPeriod;
  int barsTrain = barsTest * DataSplit/(100-DataSplit);
  int barsTotal = NumBars-LookBack;
  NumWFOCycles = (barsTotal-barsTrain)/barsTest + 1;
}

See also: